Monday, March 9, 2009

A friend of mine sent me a link to an interesting article:

Top 10 headlines that could signal a market bottom

Here are my comments:

  1. A significant (more than 10%) one- or two-day drop in the market. Since this is technical analysis, I would only trust it on the very short term.
  2. Timothy Geithner is replaced with Paul Volcker. I don't think it will happen. If it does, I agree, that would be a clear sign.
  3. The 100th day of a bankruptcy by General Motors Corp. I would not bet on GM ever coming back to life.
  4. Gold at $2,000 an ounce. I expect it significantly higher than $2,000. And I expect it to cross the level where the Dow Jones Industrial index will be.
  5. The Dow Jones Industrial Average changes more than two names at the same time, and/or adds names to increase the overall number of stocks in the index. I agree. Unfortunately indexes (and mutual funds) have something called "positive bias": only those shares are accounted for, where the company is still alive. If a company goes bankrupt, its shares will not be taken into account in the index (or even if they will be, they are weighed by the share price, which is very low), therefore the index shows a higher value than where it really should be.
  6. New York Stock Exchange daily volume drops to 1 billion shares for 30 sessions in a row. I agree that it has to decrease significantly, but I don't know the exact volume.
  7. One million jobs lost in a month. I don't think this is very significant.
  8. The market starts to rally on bad news. I'm not convinced that this shows anything. If it goes on for a significant time, then yes, but first we have to wait for a significant time to see it.
  9. Stock market favorites see 15% to 20% declines. Who is to say which companies are the favorites? And why 20%, why not 40%?
  10. CNBC goes off the air. If they do go off the air, that would be a clear sign. But I'm afraid they will survive and it is hard to measure how many people are watching it.

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